The five decades long political rhythm in Kerala is likely to see a change in the next assembly election which may take place in the months of April-May 2021. Since the 1977 Assembly election in the State, the electorate in Kerala has been voting alternately for the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front. No fronts have succeeded in retaining power once they completed the five year term and had to sit in the Opposition for the next five years.
But the assembly election in 2021 may see a change in this pattern, according to seasoned political commentators. The LDF made impressive gains in election to the municipal corporations, district panchayaths and block panchayaths while the UDF had to content with the marginal gains in municipal councils. Since the assembly elections are just five months away, there is a general feeling that the LDF is likely to repeat the performance, according to them.
“There isn’t much time left for the assembly election. The Congress that leads the UDF is in crossroads. There is a leadership crisis in the party which is unlikely to blow over in this interregnum,” said P Rajan, author and former editor of Mathrubhumi. He said the Congress-led UDF had swept the 2019 Lok Sabha election in the State because the minorities voted en masse hoping that the Congress would win a big majority all over the country.
Situation has worsened in the Grand Old Party’s Kerala unit. There is no leader in the party who is acceptable to all sections. “Earlier we had leaders like K Karunakaran who was trusted and believed by party activists. But not anymore. The present leaders are fighting among themselves and there is no cohesion in the party or in the UDF,” said T N Saseendran, former DRDO scientist and a keen watcher of Kerala politics.
He pointed out that though the situation was not favourable, the CPI(M) registered good show because the party has a strong leader like Pinarayi Vijayan. “As on today, he is the most powerful person in the party and there is no one to challenge him. Hence the CPI(M) is likely to repeat the show,” said Saseendran.
K Sudhakaran MP, has declared that he would quit as the working president of the KPCC as there was no collective responsibility in the party. Rajmohan Unnithan MP, made it known that he would resign as MP and work as Pracharak for the revival of fortunes of the Congress. K Muraleedharan, MP and son of late K Karunanakaran is on a pilgrimage praying at Lord Ayyappa Temple at Sabarimala. On Friday evening he prayed for more than 15 minutes standing in front of the sanctum sanctorum by removing his face mask. He is in the race for the KPCC chief’s post which he hopes would come in his way.
But Sreejit Panickar, cyber security-expert-turned-chronicler of Kerala politics says five months is a long time in Kerala politics.
“A lot of things could happen in this period. The Enforcement Directorate is questioning C M Raveendran, additional private secretary of Chief Minister Vijayan. We don’t know who is next in line. If the Congress High Command takes serious note of the situation and does something, it will have its own impact. Moreover, please do not get carried away by the results of local body polls because of inter personal ties. Assembly elections are held on a wider canvass and the results could be different,” said Panickar.
Chief Minister Vijayan is launching his Kerala Yatra soon to consolidate the gains in the local body polls and to beef up the CPI(M) for the polls. Another interesting development is the tacit open understanding evolving between the CPI(M) and the Congress to keep the “communal” BJP away from power in the local bodies. The same could be extended to the assembly polls too, feel a section of the commentators.
