Meticulous planning and a balanced application of calculus is needed to harvest votes

Winning elections is not an easy business, certainly not in a State like West Bengal. It needs meticulous planning and a balanced application of differential and integral calculus for harvesting votes. Every political party in the fray knows this formula but who is in a position to apply it and to what extent, are the factors that can make the difference. No sooner had the Election Commission (EC) announced an unprecedented eight-phase poll for the State than TMC chief Mamata Banerjee accused it of playing a prejudiced role to the advantage of the BJP. According to some poll experts, often in phase-wise elections, the voting trends in the initial stages have an impact on the polling pattern in the subsequent phases. Generally, people exercising their franchise in the later phases have an inclination towards the party or coalition that leads in the initial stages. It is also seen that oftentimes, voters in the last and the penultimate phases lose enthusiasm and this proves helpful to a party in segments that are traditionally not its strongholds. That said, there are various other intricacies and angles to the micro-management of elections. However, if we go by what Mamata says, the question that crosses one’s mind is: Is this the multiplier effect that the BJP is trying to bank upon?

Now, Mamata is a seasoned politician who knows that the BJP is no more riding the “Modi wave” or is in the saddle of “nationalism”. Moreover, the reduction in the tax per litre on petrol and diesel by a meagre rupee shows that she is aware that the recent surge in fuel and LPG prices will have a bearing on the BJP’s votes and that she herself ought to counter anti-incumbency. Still, Mamata is apprehensive that the surging BJP might unseat the ruling TMC by changing the “numerators and denominators with the EC’s help”. Meanwhile, the saffron party — which is banking on the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), Hindu mobilisation, the Centre’s welfare schemes floated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and corruption charges against the TMC leaders — seems to have played its cards carefully. Mamata has alleged that the EC is working on the orders of the Prime Minister and the Home Minister, and claimed she is in the know of reports that a list of phase-wise elections found in the BJP’s office completely matches with the EC’s announcement. On the other hand, the EC’s argument seems to be more justifiable: It said that it has to consider the movement of forces as well as the current spell of charges and counter-charges. Well, Bengal is a fragile State and elections here are synonymous with violence. Conducting polls in the State is not quite similar to other States. To be fair to it, the EC explanation does have a point. Even the elections to the State Assembly in 2016 were held in seven phases and the Lok Sabha polls in 2019 also saw the same number of voting rounds in the State. Well, if Mamata has any concrete evidence of her claims, it’s time for her to move the court rather than levelling allegations based on assumptions. Merely crying foul without any solid evidence to back her claims is futile. Isn’t it?