The MBS impact on geopolitics

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The MBS impact on geopolitics

Saturday, 04 September 2021 | Prashant Tewari

The MBS impact  on geopolitics

The Crown Prince is aiming to spend over $7 billion within the next 10 years across the public and private sectors to diversify its economy away from oil

Mohammed bin Salman is described as a Machiavellian reformer, visionary, revolutionary and reactionary. Itis fair to say that because of these eye-catching traits ofhis political activities that MBS, as he is popularly known as, is being keenly noticed in Saudi Arabia and beyond.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia had long been known for two things: oil and Islam — and lately for its Crown Prince. The oil-rich Kingdom has witnessed wide-ranging changes, and the man driving them is the visionary son of King Mohammed bin Salman. His admirers describe him as a hard-working, business-minded leader with no stomach for corruption and a burning desire to modernize the country while avoiding the trappings of royalty. On the other hand, his critics view him as power-hungry, ‘immature’, and someone unaware of the dangers of reforming too much too fast. Such views are hardly surprising given the rush for reform across the Kingdom since MBS was appointed as the crown prince.

MBS is already his country’s de facto ruler, and perhaps the most powerful person in the Middle East region. It was only after his father was appointed as the Crown Prince in 2012 that he began to accumulate power. The following year, MBS became the head of the Crown Prince Court and soon was made the Minister of Defense. Muhammad Bin Salman was also appointed as the Deputy Crown Prince and took over the Council of Economic and Development Affairs. There was no stopping the ambitious prince. Now in charge of the war in Yemen and Saudi Arabia’s economy, his importance as a policymaker became clear the following year when he unveiled an ambitious and wide-ranging plan to bring economic and social change to the Kingdom and end its “addiction” to oil. The destination goal for Salman was to be the most powerful man in Saudi Arabia and that meant assuming the title of Crown Prince.

After his anointment as Crown Prince, he started making moves that would shock not only the conservative Saudi Wahabbi clerics but also the world as a whole. In an interview, when he was asked what was his concept of moderation, the Prince replied: “Of course, this is a broad term. All Muslim jurists and scholars have been talking about the concept of moderation for over a thousand years. So, I do not think I am in a position to clarify this concept, as much as I can ... abide by the Saudi constitution, which is the Quran, the Sunnah, and our basic governance system and to implement it fully in a broad sense that is inclusive of everybody. This leads me to another question, namely the space Sharia occupies in the State. Meaning, on the level of the constitution, the judiciary, the public space, and the level of freedoms of individuals. As I said earlier, our constitution is the Quran, has been, still is, and will continue to be so forever.” Crown Prince is clear about the sensitive matter: “We are simply reverting to what we followed — a moderate Islam open to the world and all religions. 70 per cent of the Saudis are younger than 30, honestly, we won’t waste 30 years of our life combating extremist thoughts, we will destroy them now and immediately.”

In 2016, to prepare for the kingdom’s economic future, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman laid out a road map for the country, known as Vision 2030. The plan was to transform Saudi Arabia by liberalising social norms and improving Government services. In his words, “We seek to be proud of our country, and allow the latter to contribute to the development of the world, whether on the economic, environmental, civilisational, or intellectual levels.” Such ambitious transformation projects come with very high realisation costs. The country has plans to transform the capital Riyadh into an economic, social, and cultural hub by 2030 at the cost of $800bn along with the planning of a new city NEOM at an estimated cost of $500bn. Several other multi-billion-dollar projects are planned to be completed by 2035.

Under MBS, Saudi Arabia’s tech scene has seen a dramatic transformation. The Saudi Government is pushing huge amounts of capital into the industry and attracting foreign investors in a bid to become the new economic hub of the Middle East. Crown Prince is aiming to spend over $7 billion dollars within the next 10 years across the public and private sectors to diversify its economy away from oil. And his plan seems to be working: in the last year, Google signed a $10 billion agreement with oil giant Aramco; Amazon has committed huge business in the country, and Huawei is set to open its largest flagship outside of China in Riyadh. The growing social cachet attached to the tech industry is a trend that can be attributed, in part, to Crown Prince’s own fascination with Silicon Valley. To raise funds for economic diversification, Saudi Arabia has issued debt, drawn down its fiscal reserves and VAT - a form of sales tax. The kingdom can also continue to draw from its reserves, which stood at $130bn at the end of the second quarter of 2021. Nevertheless, privatisations are likely to gain new momentum over the coming years.  

When asked about Saudi Arabia and the US, after the new administration had arrived in the White House, was there any discord between these two allies? MBS stated that they were working on maintaining relations with strategic partners in the region, starting with the Gulf countries, Arab countries, and Middle Eastern countries. They were also working on strengthening their alliances with partners throughout the world; the US, the UK, France, Europe, and other countries, as well as seeking to create new partnerships with everyone else, such as Russia, India, China, Latin America, African countries, and others. This is all to serve the interests of Saudi Arabia without undermining any other country. 

Under Crown Prince and long-serving KSA Ambassador to India, Saud Al Sati, the relationship between India and Saudi Arabia was elevated to that of a strategic partnership. The momentum for this relationship began during the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the Kingdom in April 2016, during which he was presented with the Sash of King Abdul Aziz, the highest civilian decoration awarded by King Salman. The momentum increased with the crown Prince’s visit to India, during which he and Modi discussed prospects for bilateral cooperation in all fields, along with other issues of mutual interest. And the confirmation of India as one of the Kingdom’s strategic partner countries under Vision 2030, complete with a proposal to set up a high-level partnership council.

Finally on the lighter note, when asked why he is in a tearing hurry, Crown price replied smiling: “I fear that the day I die, I am going to die without accomplishing what I have in my mind, life is short, and a lot of things can happen, and I am really keen to see it with my own eyes - and that is why I am in a hurry.”

(The writer is Editor in Chief of Opinion Express & columnist with The Pioneer. The views expressed are personal.)

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