The issue of Ukraine trying to secure a Nato entry is much more complicated than it seems

Vladimir Putin’s conflicting signals continue to bog the Ukraine crisis. The Russian President says he is pulling back some troops from the Ukraine border but the Americans say they see no such movement. Earlier, there were reports that he had mobilised enough troops to launch an invasion. But it was subsequently said he had not taken that call. If this pattern has to make sense, it can mean only one thing. Putin will not launch an invasion unless there is a provocation. The worry for the Americans and Nato leadership is even a false incident could provoke him into action. Putin has made clear what he wants. He is strictly against Ukraine getting a Nato membership. An eastward expansion of Nato would bring the United States to Russian borders and encroach into Russia’s sphere of power and influence. Putin wants Nato’s military presence near Russian borders curtailed, as also neutralising Ukraine. US President Joe Biden, intent on forgetting the embarrassingly quick withdrawal from Afghanistan, wants to be the crusader by thwarting Russia and protecting Ukraine, but without having to wage a war for it. Does it then seem that both leaders have a strong motive to fight a war or merely magnify the threat of war? President George W Bush forced Nato in 2008 to invite Ukraine, along with Georgia, to become members. There was no set date and Nato has never offered a formal invitation to join. Some Nato members were sceptical, considering Ukraine was farther to the east and much closer to Russia.

Biden has been handling the Ukraine-Nato business off and on for several years, since when he was a member of the American Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He is witness to all the deliberations that never officially led to a formal Nato invite to Ukraine. There are three conditions for a country to join Nato. One, it should be democratic and honour the rule of law. Two, it should be able to contribute to the joint defence of Nato member-States. Three, all 30 Nato members should approve the application. There are enough reasons suggesting these conditions make it difficult for Ukraine to have an easy entry into Nato. On the other hand, Ukraine always dreams of joining Nato. The objective was enshrined in their Constitution in 2019. However, they could never shed themselves of Russian presence and pressure in their attempts to get closer to Nato. Former Presidents Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych did their best to gain entry into Nato. Yanukovych could not even manage to sign an agreement to be associated with the European Union. Even now, they have not given up their “dream” and are looking for “other arrangements” to allow them to “survive” the present crisis. They know Russia can defeat them in a war but it can gain more leverage by merely threatening to attack. It is a matter of what concessions Russia seeks and who is willing to concede them.