As federalism gives way to legitimacy of national parties, regional ones look at extinction

If the Lok Sabha verdict is considered a benchmark in resetting the grammar of politics as swatting the Opposition, then its impact on regional politics has been such as to eliminate the relevance of federal parties. Once the backbone of powerful coalition governments at the Centre, State parties are now much like tribal chieftains, good enough for lording over their flocks but too tiny to stall the juggernaut of national parties gobbling them up. In such a scenario, they have just two options, either withdraw to their pocketboroughs or sign up with the big players if they want to stay in the game. So it is that in Maharashtra, there has been a mass migration from the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to the BJP-Shiv Sena combine, almost wiping off the Opposition space. And in Rajasthan, the ruling Congress government has followed the same pattern of accretion to its ranks by coopting six Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) MLAs, grinding the theory of Dalit consolidation to the dust.

Given the current scenario, Maharashtra really doesn’t need an election, considering that the only tussle will be between coalition partners, the BJP and the Sena, over seat percentage and power-sharing, much like a fraternal war of carving out the spoils. Twenty-six MLAs from the Opposition camp, including its leader in the Assembly, joined the ruling party, creating a political vacuum. The worst hit has been NCP founder Sharad Pawar, no longer appearing to be the Maratha strongman. Such is his condition that except his core team, every other party member is looking to jump ship. And though NCP is tying up with the Congress to avoid total dissipation, fact is the rump that both parties have become may just get them 30 plus seats in a House of 288. The Congress is at its worst level of preparedness given the dissension within its ranks and the Young Turks, led by Milind Deora, stepping aside and themselves not averse to charting out an independent course. Yes it has a new State chief but the will to fight back is simply missing at the unit level. The party would be just about happy with whatever it gets courtesy the standing of some of its individual leaders. Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray, who at least injected some drama into proceedings by questioning the establishment, is nowhere to be seen what with the BJP taming him with a slew of Enforcement Directorate (ED) cases. The fringe players, who could be vote cutters, like Prakash Ambedkar and Asaduddin Owaisi, have been torn asunder and chasing their own kitties. As for the BJP-Sena duel, the former is now claiming its pound of flesh, considering it can go alone and has for years stepped back to accommodate the sensitivities of the Sena. The latter may want a 50-50 distribution of seats, and maybe even a shot at deputy chief minister for Aaditya Thackeray, son of Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, but it has no negotiating edge. And while its conscience calls in the form of criticising the Modi government and functioning like an Opposition worked in 2014, it certainly isn’t attractive anymore. Besides, the Sena must understand that though the Modi charisma works, BJP Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has quietly developed his own stock. If the Sena has so far peddled the local versus outsider logic, the BJP has several Maratha leaders now, courtesy the migration of senior leaders from the Congress, and has even roped in Shivaji’s descendant Udayanraje Bhosale. So the Sena may engage in posturing, yet has no option but to acquiesce to the BJP’s grand design. The ruling Congress in Rajasthan, too, has just gone by the old formula of buying support with promised doles, something which has become part of the BJP’s playbook. In fact, it was to counter the BJP’s poaching attempts in Rajasthan and create a Karnataka-like scenario that prompted the Ashok Gehlot-led government to scoop up allies. Sadly, such rampant horse-trading is just eroding the idea of a federal union and overlaying a new text of unionised federalism. A throwback to the chaos that we had hoped to clean up.