After tackling the challenges of developing an early warning system for cyclones and heatwaves, the Ministry of Earth Sciences has developed a Common Alert Protocol (CAP) system (an advanced thunderstorm and lightning alert system) to warn people about impending thunderstorm and lightning strikes, which account for the second highest number of natural disaster deaths in the country.
The CAP system will predict thunderstorm occurrence as well as lightning flash, lightning probability, heavy rain, gusty wind up to 24 hour lead time and outlook for 48 hour lead time. As part of this system, once a region is identified where the lightning will strike, mobile cell towers in that region are used to push alert messages to all active mobiles in the said region. The IMD has tested this system in collaboration with the BSNL and using an interface developed by the Centre for Development of Telematics (CDOT).
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), it will be a two-stage forecast. It will forecast the probability of thunderstorm over the next two days. Once the event occurs, it will give a forecast on how the thunderstorm will behave in the next six hours and what are the areas where the lightening can strike.
“Scientists from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), IMD and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) developed a prediction tools thunderstorm/lightning for nowcast (upto 3 hours), short range forecast upto 24 hours from high resolution mesoscale model and 48 hour outlook from high resolution global model,” the IMD said. Currently, IMD issues three hourly thunderstorm Rs nowcast’ for around 433 stations.
The IMD came under severe criticism last year after more than 200 people were killed by the deadly pre-monsoon storms in the northern plains. There were three episodes of killer storms in last May, out of which the first one on May 2 was the deadliest as a violent storm barreled through eastern Rajasthan and western Uttar Pradesh, eliminating nearly 130 people and injuring another 400. More than 1,800 houses were damaged and 800 cattle were killed.
According to NCRB, lighting is the biggest cause of death among all the natural calamities in India, killing more than 2500 people in 2014 and 2015.
