For this to happen, Prashant Kishor has to prove that he is an asset to Mamata rather than a headache

Will well-known poll strategist Prashant Kishor become an asset or a liability in the forthcoming West Bengal Assembly polls for the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC)? Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has engaged him to help her perform a hat-trick. Though she has almost decimated the Left parties and the Congress, this time Mamata will be up against the emerging BJP which wants to wrest the State from her. Dismayed by the TMC’s poor performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Didi engaged Kishor at the behest of her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, whom she has been grooming as her political heir. Kishor came into prominence as a successful election strategist after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Mamata chose Kishor because of his track record of delivering election victories for Prime Minister Narendra Modi (2014), Nitish Kumar in Bihar (2015), Captain Amarinder Singh in Punjab (2017), Jagan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh (2019) and Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi (2019). The DMK chief MK Stalin has also contracted him for the forthcoming Tamil Nadu polls.

Earlier, Mamata believed in her fighting capacities as she overthrew the Left coalition which ruled Bengal for 33 years in 2011 by making use of the anger of the people against the Government. She won the State for the second time in 2016 as she had evolved as a national leader and continued to enjoy the people’s goodwill. However, for the 2021 polls, she is not sure as the BJP is breathing down the TMC’s neck and deploying its top leadership in the campaign. 

With Mamata’s full backing, Kishor’s team soon began working as a parallel organisation with more powers than even the TMC functionaries. His company I-PAC began to develop tight control over the party and the Bengal Government, ruffling many feathers in the process. On his advice, Mamata has revised some of her Government’s policies, including a 10 per cent upper caste quota, a review of the salary structure of the State police force, primary teachers and functionaries working at the panchayats and many other populist schemes. The TMC leaders are upset with Kishor’s clean-up drive, as his team has assessed each constituency and given Mamata a report, urging her to change at least 150 sitting MLAs. Over the last few weeks, several senior and mid-level TMC functionaries have voiced their resentment publicly and privately against Kishor’s dominance. Mamata then asked Kishor to adopt a consensual approach and avoid ruffling feathers but this could not stem the steady exodus from the TMC to the BJP. The erosion began first with one or two MLAs leaving the TMC. It has gradually grown, with even senior leaders like Suvendu Adhikari, Silbhadra Dutta and Dinesh Trivedi quitting. The Congress and the Left cannot attract those leaving because Didi decimated them in the last 10 years and left the Opposition space for the BJP to occupy. This time she has the anti-incumbency factor and party troubles staring her in the face.

However, Mamata has always been a street fighter and positive in her approach. She has seen ups and downs in her political career but has never given up. Didi’s strongest assets are her hard work, excellent booth-level management and her national stature. There is also no lack of money for her party because the poll bonds have given her enough funds. Above all, strong local organisers will work hard to save themselves, which could benefit the TMC. If she could keep her Muslim vote bank intact besides wooing Hindu votes she could succeed. But before that, she has to stem the perception that the TMC has become weak. She is facing a similar situation the Congress did in 1997 before Sonia Gandhi stepped in. Floating voters might think that the TMC is a sinking boat and Mamata has to check the erosion before it is too late. For this, Kishor has to prove that he is an asset rather than a headache.                                   

(The writer is a senior journalist.The views expressed are personal.)