Moving to the Delhi Durbar is an easy option for Nitish Kumar, but protecting the future of his party and his own legacy remain tough tasks for the JD(U) supremo as he stands at the crossroad of an eventful political journey, writes Navin Upadhyay
Even in moments when he is uninhibited in sharing his political strategy or aspirations, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar would not give even a glimpse of what exactly went on in his mind. An inscrutable personality, the Janata Dal (U) leader is known for keeping his cards close to his chest. When last week he sprang a surprise by walking up to the former CM Rabri Devi’s residence to attend an Iftar party hosted by the RJD, the political circle was agog with the possibility of him joining hands with Lalu Prasad’s family once again. But next day Nitish drove to the airport to receive Home Minister Amit Shah and his party set rest to any chance of the birth of new equation in the state. The RJD has also rejected any such possibility and asked Nitish to merge his party with the Lalu Prasad outfit to strengthen the hands of secular forces against the BJP. RJD leaders have made it clear that if Nitish wanted to come out of NDA, this time he will have to accept Tejashwai Yadav as the chief minister.
Even if Nitish laughs off any such possibility or the ever-growing speculation about him relinquishing the chair of the Chief Minister for an assignment in Delhi (be it Vice-President or a Central minister), the denial has few takers.
Janata Dal (U) national president Lallan Singh and parliamentary party leader Upendra Kushwaha have more than once tried to put a lid on such speculations by claiming that Nitish would continue as CM as long as NDA existed in Bihar. “ Nitish Kumar’s leadership is the first condition for the existence of NDA in Bihar,” said Kushwaha.
Nitish Kumar himself has denied news that he is planning to move to Delhi via the Rajya Sabha route. But there are unmistakable signs that the Nitish is preparing fo9r some major change.
To begin with, Kumar has shifted from the official residence of the Chief Minister at 1, Anne Marg to 7 Circular Road ostensibly to make way for the renovation of the former.
Secondly, Nitish travelled the length and breadth of Nalanda for weeks, thanking people for allowing him to serve them. The “thanksgiving” resonated more like “goodbye” in the present political climate of Bihar, where the entire political and administrative discourse revolves around Nitish’s next game plan.
The BJP obviously could not dare to dislodge Nitish Kumar even if his party has fewer seats in the assembly and he survives as Chief Minister due to the benevolence of the saffron outfit. If Nitish needs BJP, the BJP too is equally dependent on the JD(U) to take on RJD in Bihar.
Bihar BJP has become rudderless after leaders like Sushil Kumar Modi were taken out of the decision-making process in state politics.. The result of the much-touted Bochahan assembly by-poll, in which the BJP suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of the RJD thanks to a revolt by Bhumihar voters, shows the ineptness of the state leadership. After all, Bhumihar once formed the biggest support base of the BJP in the state. At the same time, the ouster of Mukesh Sahni from the Nitish cabinet at the insistence of the BJP has alienated the mallah community which constitutes nearly 4-5 percent of votes in Bihar. This was another major miscalculation on the part of the BJP.
The state unit’s decision to deny a ticket to a powerful Bhumihar leader like Sachitananand Rai brought to open the simmering discontent among the Bhumihars against the BJP. Rai won the MLC polls as an independent candidate and has vowed to teach a lesson to those who humiliated him. Bhumihars may be a numerically inconsequential caste, but they are politically and economically very powerful and can impact the outcome of the Lok Sabha on their own on at least 7-8 seats.
To add to BJP discomfiture, Chirag Paswan is also inching closer to the RJD. Chirag is upset over the way the Central machinery threw away the belongings of his late father Ramvias Paswan on the road in the process of vacating the 12 Janpath residence in Delhi, occupied by Paswans for close to three decades.
Suddenly, the chink in the armor of the saffron army stands fully exposed. Under the given situation, the BJP cannot ill afford to take on Nitish Kumar or the RJD.
Then why would Nitish Kumar himself decide to relinquish the throne for the saffron party and move to Delhi durbar?
There are pressing reasons for such conjectures, reasons that someone like Nitish Kumar would not overlook. Nitish would be well aware that after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, he would become irrelevant to both the BJP and the opposition. In 2025 assembly polls he would be approaching the ripe age of 75, and it would be naïve to think that given his weakening hold over the voters, he would still command enough support to return as chief minister. Also, after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP will not need Nitish Kumar’s support till the 2029 general elections. By then Nitish would have been too old to play any significant role in active politics. So once, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls are over, the BJP could be expected to go all out to compel Nitish Kumar to give up the chair of the chief minister for a saffron commander. Nitish will have few options: either he agrees to the BJP’s demand or join hands with the RJD, which, in turn, will not have much to offer him, either.
Nitish and BJP are also at loggerheads on the implementation of the Uniform Civil code and caste census in Bihar. Nitish is expected to go ahead with the caste census in the state despite objection from the BJP, and the saffron outfit might do the same in the case of UCC despite Nitish’s bitter opposition. Despite sharing power with the BJP, Nitish has always tried to keep the minority voters in good humor. He would lose that constituency altogether if he supported the controversial Code.
That limits Nitish Kumar’s option. Before his continuation, as chief minister becomes untenable, Nitish may have to go for an honorable exit and bargain for a suitable “accommodation” in Delhi.
Even if the Modi-Shah dispensation agreed to anoint him as Vice-President, Nitish can take that option only if he is ready to write the epitaph of Janata Dal (U) in Bihar. Minus Nitish Kumar, the ‘orphaned’ JD(U) will either disintegrate within no time or will be swallowed by the BJP and RJD. Will Nitish Kumar afford to be remembered as the last “ emperor’ of the JD(U)? Perhaps not. That may prevail on him to bargain for a central ministry in the Modi government, which will give him the luxury to remain in active politics and keep intact his party till a successor emerges.
A third option is to move to the Opposition camp and become a consensus candidate for the office of the President. That option gained currency when poll strategist Prashant Kumar met Nitish Kumar in Delhi some time ago. With PK not joining the Congress, efforts to bring Kumar to the opposition camp are likely to subside. Even otherwise, Nitish is not known to take such risks in his politics.
If there is a change of guard in Bihar, -then the BJP will have a tough task in picking up Nitish Kumar’s successor. With Sushil Modi literally out of the race—though undoubtedly best suited for the job—the party may go for someone like Union minister of state for home Nityanand Rai. The fact that Rai is a Yadav is being put forward as his strong point since that could help him in making a dent in the RJD’s core vote bank. But how would the extremely backward caste and vaishyas react to a Yadav leadership is a million-dollar question. All these years, both the BJP and JD (U) ruled Bihar by projecting Lalu Yadav and his clans as “corrupt’ and “criminals”. The narrative was exploited in successive polls to polarise the Non-Yadav OBCs and Upper castes voters. Will the BJP voters readily agree to such a sudden shift in the discourse?
In the caste-based politics of Bihar where the RJD is a resurgent force, snatching the Chief Minister’s chair from Nitish Kumar is the least of the challenge for the BJP. Similarly, for Nitish Kumar, moving to the Delhi Durbar is an easy option, but protecting the future of his party and his own legacy remain the most formidable task for the JD (U) supremo as he stands at the crossroad of an eventful political journey.
The writer is Executive Editor of The Pioneer
