Army’s mistrust in Imran runs deep

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Army’s mistrust in Imran runs deep

Friday, 12 May 2023 | Bhopinder Singh

Army’s mistrust in Imran runs deep

The Pakistani ‘establishment’ shows signs of desperation, fissures and hamhanded actions as Imran Khan pays for overestimating his strength

If there was any doubt on who the real ‘McCoy’ is in Pakistan, then the reality just played out. Folks who ostensibly swear by ‘Iman, taqwa, jihad fi sabilillah’ (A follower of none but Allah. Fear of Allah, Jihad for Allah) are seemingly fearful of a man they ‘selected’ in 2018, but ‘ejected’ in 2022 i.e., Imran Khan. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan had been baiting the Pakistani Army (‘establishment’) since the time he was booted out and with the handover of the baton of Pakistani Army Chief from General Qamar Bajwa (Imran’s original nemesis) to the relatively low-key, General Asim Munir, Imran’s tirade was expected to cool down. It didn’t, and Imran kept poking and provoking the ‘establishment’ with barbs on its self-claimed ‘neutrality’. Everyone knows that the ‘establishment’ was anything but neutral, but none expected the General Munir-led ‘establishment’ to show its incorrigible instincts, so soon.

The first thing that the optics of Imran Khan getting bumped off in a personnel carrier of the Punjab Rangers confirms is that the change of baton to General Munir has not resulted in any change of sensibilities, but a continuation of the infamous maxim that ‘States have an Army, but Pakistani Army has a State’. General Asim Muneer, a Hafiz-e-Quran (completely memorized the Quran) is a chip-of-the-old-block who has taken over his predecessor General Qamar Bajwa’s battle with Imran Khan, in earnest. The ‘Sword of Honour’ from Officers Training School in Mangla joined the Pakistani Army in the dark days of a fellow officer, General Zia-ul-Haq, who perhaps more than any Military dictator in Pakistan has contributed to the politicisation (even ‘Shariaziation’) of the Pakistani Army.

In an eerie similarity of dodgy charges, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, who had been arrested by the ‘establishment’ on charges of authorising the murder of a political opponent – now, Imran Khan has been arrested in a case that alleges that Imran and his wife obtained billions from a real estate firm! Not too many were convinced with the neutrality of the Pakistani Army in 1977, and seemingly a lot remain unconvinced of the Pakistani Army’s innocence, in 2023!

‘Establishments’ murky ways can be gauged by the trigger for the recent escalation i.e., one Maj Gen Faisal Naseer DG (C) of ISI, infamous as ‘Dirty Harry’. As the second-in-command to DG-ISI, and one who handles internal security and counterintelligence-related matters, he has been directly accused along with the retired General Bajwa and current DG-ISI, Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum.

Imran’s allegation of Maj Gen Faisal Naseer attempting to assassinate him are presumably more political and theatrical than realistic as if it were to be true, the cold brutality of the ISI would have knocked him off, long back. ‘Establishment’ knows from history that a ‘live’ enemy instead of a ‘dead’ one is a better bet – a deposed and exiled Iskander Mirza (coup in 1958) and similarly banished Nawaz Sharif (coup in 1999) was less difficult to handle than the memory of a dead Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (hanged in 1978)! With Imran Khan ranting, railing and eventually getting under the skin of the ‘establishment’, irretrievably – the accompanying claims of the assassination attempt, were only par for the course.

Ongoing socio-economic morass has already discredited the civilian Pakistani dispensation beyond repair, and it was only left to the ‘establishment’ to blunt Imran Khan’s mounting challenge, and it did so in an old-school way. But the ‘establishment’ which has usually benefitted from doubt in flexing its strong-arm tactics against the various civilian governments in the past, may have just overplayed its hands, this time. For once, the public mood is not just deeply divided, but even more worryingly for Pakistan, so is the rank and file of the ‘establishment’, seemingly.

Unchecked rampage of the property of the ‘establishment’ is suggestive of divides, within. Finally, the cost of politicizing the apolitical realm of the Armed Forces is coming home to roost, as the ‘establishment’ shows signs of desperation, fissures, and ham-handed actions. For a nuclear-armed state, such a display of kneejerk and implosive instinct is fraught with incalculable risks.

However, what works in favour of the ‘establishment’ is the invisible but sure hand of Washington DC, for they too, would rather deal with over-entitled though consistent Generals than with a temperamental and highly untrustworthy ‘Taliban Khan’, a sobriquet earned by Imran Khan. The Chinese don’t have a preference, though they would be wary of anarchy given the investment made in China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Similarly, Arab Sheikhdoms too would prefer the Pakistan Military given their historic ties. This leaves Imran with the only option of igniting domestic passions and therefore for the ‘establishment’ to go to any extent to douse the same, even if it means arresting him in an unwarranted manner.

The judiciary (especially the CJI) has been on the back foot for other reasons, so he too might not attempt to be too brave. This will leave Pakistan tense with multiple one-upmanship and showmanship between various stakeholders, but the ‘establishment’ has made the first move and history suggests, may not be the last move. The ‘establishment’ simply cannot afford to step down and lower the ante, and so it will go to any extent to clamp down dissonance against it hereinafter, even if it means stepping in formally. Imran had over-baited and the ‘establishment’ bit back.

(The writer, a military veteran, is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry. The views expressed are personal)

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