As technological prowess and energy resources become pivotal, the global landscape is rapidly evolving and new power centres emerging
The global landscape is undergoing a significant transformation among the top 50 nations in the aftermath of Covid and the Ukraine-Russia conflict. In the past two years, traditional alliances are shifting, and there's growing interdependence among leading countries driven by economic synergies.
During the Covid pandemic, many strong nations found their healthcare systems overwhelmed, while some emerging nations managed the crisis effectively. India notably excelled in controlling the pandemic domestically and globally by providing vaccines, medical equipment, and technology to less developed nations, enhancing its reputation among historically Nonaligned countries.
The US is currently experiencing severe economic challenges, including high inflation. It is attempting to reassert its dominance in global politics, resisting the rise of new economic powers and non-US-centric power centers. Since the fall of the USSR, the US has been the predominant global power for over three decades.
Technological strength is now a key factor in global supremacy, with new forms of informational warfare becoming prominent. Other significant areas of competition include arms, oil, energy and pharmaceuticals, with China emerging as a leading challenger in the past decade.
Russia has made significant strides in the oil and gas sector, surpassing the US in cost efficiency and logistics. Russia is also poised to dominate the Arctic region in terms of oil and logistics, challenging the combined influence of the US and the EU. The US is working to regain influence over NATO allies, a struggle evident in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. While Ukraine is directly engaged with Russia, the broader context involves a Cold War-like standoff between the US-led NATO and Russia, with the EU Council and Ukraine playing significant roles.
The South China Sea remains a potential conflict zone between ASEAN nations and China. The QSD-Quad, comprising India, the US, Japan, and Australia, was formed to address these issues. Observing India's actions during the global Covid pandemic, the Afghanistan crisis, and the Ukraine war, it's clear that India is increasingly nonaligned, assertive, and balanced in its approach. India's balanced diplomacy was also evident during the Israel-Palestine crisis.
The US uses NATO to assert its influence over Russia and the EU while utilising the QUAD to counter China's growing influence in the Pacific. Despite high tensions in Ukraine and Taiwan, trade between the US and Russia, and the US and China, has not declined. India is pursuing a unique diplomatic strategy with each nation, based on mutual respect and the philosophy of equal nations. India no longer positions itself as a prominent member of any regional or global group. India does not seek support from any alliance or group for its open issues with neighbours. It is a member or an invitee to most regional alliances and is globally respected for its actions and policies.
In the post-Ukraine conflict world, regardless of the war's outcome, a clear division into two technology groups is emerging. One group will undoubtedly be led by the USA, while China or Russia could lead the other.
In this context, it is crucial for India to avoid joining either group, maintaining good relations with both the USA and Russia based on issue-specific synergies. India must remain firm against external pressures and uncompromising on matters of national interest within the international framework. Self-reliance across all economic sectors has become vital for India. National programs aimed at self-sufficiency are on the right track. India should focus on its legacy issues and avoid unnecessary expenditure of energy and resources on matters where it is not a direct party.
(The writer is an eminent Expert-Counter Terrorism for Middle East & West Asian Countries; views are personal)
