It is too early to predict the combine which will assume charge at the Centre after the lok Sabha election. Ifs and buts are many
The big picture emerging slowly with the political parties declaring their candidates for the 2014 lok Sabha election is interesting. The alliances are more or less sealed. The election campaign too is picking up fast. More than 814 million people — larger than the entire population of Europe — will vote in the world’s biggest democratic exercise between April 7 and May 12.
The 2014 general election is the most significant for various reasons. Caught between scams, corruption, falling rupee, staggering economy, policy paralysis, non-governance, declining number of allies and quarrelling State parties, the election scene presents a confusing picture as there are no clear winners. The Congress banks on the secular-communal divide while the BJP is talking of change. The fact is: Both have failed to meet the aspirations of the people. Both will have a tough time looking for post-poll allies.
The evolving election scene broadly reveals three scenarios: The first is the return of the Congress-led UPA Government. This is the least possible scenario in view of the declining strength of the Congress, weak party organisation and the anti- incumbency factor. Also, it will be an acid test for the survival of the Gandhi family.
The reluctant Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi has not been able to make much impact. In the event of a setback, the dynasty’s declining electoral influence may be in focus. While the once Congress citadel Andhra Pradesh is now totally out of reach for the party after the creation of a separate Telangana State, the Congress has no allies in Tamil Nadu too for the first time. Where the fight is mainly between the regional parties and the Congress in some States there are seven States where there is a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. The UPA is shrinking and no new allies are coming forward. The Congress is hoping for a respectable three-digit number in this poll.
The second scenario is a BJP-led NDA Government. The BJP is riding high with a big advertisement blitz, mega rallies, bill-boards and hoardings. The prediction is that the BJP may emerge as the single-largest party. But, it has to look for allies to form a Government. With a shrunk NDA, the party is now depending on the Modi-magic. Although the party’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is running an unprecedented ad blitz, the polity is fractured and the anti-Congress votes are splintered. New allies are hesitant because of Mr Modi’s image.
The best-case scenario for the BJP is to get 200-plus seats to enable Mr Modi to become the Prime Minister. The party has no presence in the entire south (except perhaps Karnataka), entire North-East and in also big States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. It all depends on how much the party can improve in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, and also how much it can attract the new voters.
The third scenario is a Government led by an alternate front supported by the Congress. This includes new players like the Aam Aadmi Party. Then there is the Telangana Rashtra Samithi and the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh, which could play significant role in the poll. Smaller parties like the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, a splinter group of the Shiv Sena, could also play a spoiler. This third alternative can happen if the Congress and the BJP together get less than the half-way mark.
Yet another important factor is the emergence of strong Chief Ministers. They could bring a bottom-up effect and bid for power in case of a hung Parliament, which is likely. The regional satraps like Ms Mamata Banerjee, Ms J Jayalalithaa, Mr Naveen Patnaik and Mr Nitish Kumar are keen to hold on to their fiefdoms.
Whether it is a Third Front or a federal front, there are a number of prime ministerial aspirants including these leaders to stake their claims. As of now, what is visible are a fractured polity and all players keeping their cards close to their chest for a post-poll scenario.
