Nation only after Russia in terms of spike rate among 13 worst-affected countries
The speed of coronavirus spurt in India, both in terms of duration of doubling of cases as well as ratio of growth over a period of one month, could provide little comfort despite reassuring claims by officials and experts. The country has surpassed the global average and raced ahead of some of the worst-affected nations by a big margin on both these counts.
In one month, India saw a nine-time rise in the number of cases, going up from 6,700 cases on April 9 to 63,000 plus cases on May 9. In the same duration, the worldwide count rose from 1,600,590 to 4,098,288 cases, which amounts to a near 2.5-time rise.
The USA saw a similar 2.5-time growth with cases rising from 4,29,000 to 10,29,494 between April 9 and May 9.
India has surpassed some of the other worst-affected countries such as France, Italy, Spain Germany, China, and Canada, Turkey and Iran with even much faster momentum. With its doubling speed of 11 days, India now trails only Russia in terms of ratio of growth over a period of one month among 13 worst affected countries.
In aggregate terms the world’s doubling up speed is consistent at 22-24 days, whereas the USA, France, Italy, Germany, Canada, Spain, Turkey and Iran are taking anywhere between 24 to 39 days to double up.
On May 9, the worldwide count of positive cases stood at 4,115,559. In reaching here from the halfway mark of 2,057,779, it took 24 days — the number stood at 2,076,503 on April 16. The global rate of doubling has been nearly consistent in the last one month with average daily addition of between 75,000 to 95,000 new cases. One third of these cases are reported from the USA alone on daily basis.
The USA has also contributed more than 25 per cent of the total global cases. The USA’s May 9 tally of total cases stood at 13,47,318, where it reached after doubling up from 6,52,476 on April 15 in 24 days. In the same period between March 21 and April 15, the USA raced from 5,600 to 65,246 cases, registering a
12-time growth.
Now take the case of Spain which seems to have peaked out after weeks of daily spikes. The country’s total stood at 262,783 on May 9 whereas on April 9 the figure was 153,222, which is far less than two-fold rise in one month. In fact, Spain doubled up from 1,31,646 on April 15 to 2,62,783 on May 9 in 24 days.
The United Kingdom has also seen a similar trend. The country’s total stood at
2,15,260 on May 9, with a less than four-time rise from 65,000 on April 9 in one month period. The UK took 22 days to double from the halfway mark of 1,08,692 on April 17.
In the preceding 22 days, UK surged leaps and bounds, racing from 5,600 cases on March 22 to 1,08,692 cases — in statistical term a near 18-fold growth.
In case of Italy, which has seen a huge number of deaths, case doubled from 1,10,576 on April 1 to 2,18,268 on May 9, in 39 days. In the preceding 39 days, Italy saw a more than 500-time spike, rising from a mere 21 on March 21 to 1,10,576 on April 1. Italy tally stood at 1,43,726 on April 9, which shows that country saw a just1.5-time growth in one month, six-time less than India.
France has taken 34 days to double from 87,579 on April 5 to 1,76,658 on May 9. In the same 34 days between March 1 and April 5, France saw cases registering a plus 80-fold growth --- from a mere 130 on March 1 to 87,579 on April 5. France had 100, 700 cases April 9.
Germany pace of growth is still slower. The country crawled from 1,18,235 on April 9 to 1,71, 324 on May 9. In the preceding 37 days, Germany saw a mindboggling 4500-time rise, going from 18 on February 25 to 84,794 on April 2.
The same is the case with South American giant Brazil, which went up from 18,000 cases on April 9 to 156, 061 cases on May 9, registering a less than 8-time growth. However, Brazil more than doubled up in ten days from 79,361 on April 29 to 1,56,061 on May 9.
Turkey and Iran have taken between 24 and 36 days respectively to double up from the halfway marks from where they stood on May 9. Both countries reported far less ratio of growth than India over a period of one month.
Among the list of 13 worst countries only Russia and Peru have registered much faster growth than India in one month duration. Both the countries are seeing a late surge and have doubled in around 10 days.
Russia’s total stood at 2,09,688 cases on May 9, doubling up from 1,06,498 on April 30 in nine days. In the preceding nine days Russia went up from 62,273 to 1,06,498 cases. During one month between April 9 to May 9, Russian saw 20-time spurt going up from 10,000 on April 9 to 2,09,688 on May 9. Russia’s rate of doubling has increased sharply in the late order, and the curve is rising unlike many other European countries and even the USA.
In case of Peru, a South American nation with a small population of 3.2 crore, the total number stood at around 5,000 on April 9. It grew by nearly 13-time to reach 65,000 cases on May 9.
Analysis shows that after enforcement of lockdown while the rate of doubling slowed down in Europe and the USA, the pace increased in the Russia and South American, while India continued to grow at an alarming speed.
Reports are pouring in from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha and West Bengal about migrant workers returning to their native places broken, hungry, and infected. The fear of contagion arising from tens of thousands of liquor lovers jostling and wrestling with each other before the liquor vends for three days, is equally bone chilling. With the country in the “opening up” mode, the days ahead could be challenging going by the pace of Covid-19 growth in India.
