It is now clear that there will be no BJP-BJD alliance ahead of the 2024 simultaneous elections in Odisha with both parties announcing that they would go solo, of course after a lingering suspense over the issue for nearly three weeks since PM Narendra Modi’s Chandikhol rally on March 5.
Though seat-sharing remained a bone of contention for both the parties that led to the failure of the talks for a formal return of BJD to the NDA fold and reunion of the BJD and BJP at the State level, the broader issue is how the development is going to affect the Modi-Naveen chemistry or the BJD’s stand on the Centre ahead.
It is no secret that BJD supremo and CM Naveen Patnaik has had a cordial relation with the Centre since 2000, be it the UPA or the NDA in power, though the Congress and BJP vied with each other to take the space of principal opposition in Odisha, with him tackling each with equal ease. Over the last 23 years of his rule, ace Naveen managed the equation so beautifully that the top leaders of the two national parties have reposed more confidence on him than on their respective State units. The friendly gesture of Modi and Naveen at the Chandikhol rally and Modi calling Naveen ‘Mitra’ at Sambalpur a few months back, was, therefore, no surprise.
However, there is no denying that ever since Naveen came to power in 2000, the BJD had taken a hard stand against the Centre on various issues in the interest of the State, be it Central neglect, revision of mineral royalty, Mahanadi water dispute, reduced funds from Centre on Central schemes, to name a few. The BJD organised huge rallies, roadshows, shutdowns and railroko etc to cry foul against the Centre. Even a few BJD leaders, not very much known till the other day, could hog the limelight for spearheading those campaigns. In the last nine years of Modi regime, the BJD’s aggressiveness may have been slow, but as a regional party, it has left no stone unturned to safeguard the interest of Odisha.
During the height of Covid pandemic, Naveen’s hectic efforts to invite bids at international level for providing vaccines to Odisha, though it didn’t succeed, and later, throwing the State Government’s Biju Swathya Kalyan Yojana (BSKY) as a better alternative of the Central scheme, Ayushman Bharat, are a strong proof of Naveen trying to solve local problems on his own without letting the Centre to take credit in vital issues. Even when the Modi Government enjoyed praises across the country by building the Ayodhya Ram Temple, Naveen laid focus on Lord Jagannath and the Shreemandir by his much-hyped Heritage Corridor Project to ignite the Odia pride. It’ll not be wrong to say that Naveen has been able to prevent the Modi juggernaut in Odisha soil with considerable success and the result was for anyone to see. Despite the nationwide Modi wave since 2009, Odisha remained immune to it and the BJP’s show in Odisha was not comparable in any way with that of BJD’s.
All the same, Naveen has cooperated with the Modi Government by backing many of its controversial Bills in the Parliament, even to the chagrin of the non-BJP satraps in other States. He supported BJP nominee Ashwini Vaishnaw twice for the Rajya Sabha elections from Odisha. Despite not being in the NDA, BJD behaved as if it is more pro-BJP than even the NDA partners.
In the context of a possible pre-poll tie-up with the BJP in 2024, the BJD has had a very clear standpoint right from the beginning. That is, it was prepared to take any step to suit the best interest of the State. The BJD leaders were of the strong convictions that since Modi as ‘Vikash Purush’ has initiated faster developments across India, BJD’s coming together with BJP would be in the favour of Odisha which may give a push to the growth momentum of the State. Naveen’s close aide and Navin Odisha Chairman VK Pandian in a discussion in a national channel had also reiterated the point that the BJD was not going for re-alliance with the BJP for petty and immediate gains of winning the 2024 elections, but for a wider goal of bringing together two Statesmen, Modi and Naveen.
That the alliance could not take off has gone in the interest of the BJP and BJD, more in the latter’s case. The BJP has been ambitious of wresting power from BJD on two grounds: The Modi wave and anti-incumbency against BJD. However, from organisation point of view the saffron is yet to make a mark across Odisha. On the contrary, the BJD has still a robust organisation in the length and breadth of Odisha, even in the seats where BJP has won. CM Naveen has opened a floodgate of sops and schemes lately which has further bolstered his position in tackling the anti-incumbency factor. The development projects he has launched and the ones that are in the pipeline speak for themselves. Had there been an alliance, the BJD which is grappling with the ‘problem of plenty’ in deciding tickets for multiple aspirants would have found the problem more acute. Now that it has a free go over all the 147 Assembly and 21 LS seats to decide its nominees for. According to poll observers, the BJP may improve its tally in Odisha but is unlikely to get a cakewalk. On the contrary, the BJD is sure to pull all stops to retain its invincibility and winning spree.
Consequently, the animosity between the two parties after the alliance failure will remain confined to this election only without affecting Naveen’s delicate rapport with Modi, as BJD could be ‘unavoidably’ a friend-in-need-a-friend-indeed for the BJP.
