May last up to 98 days, Covid deaths can be cut by vaccinations, improving health infra
A third wave of Covid-19 could be just as severe as the second wave and can last up to 98 days, a latest SBI report has said.
However, the number of Covid-related deaths can be reduced by increasing vaccinations and improvement of health infrastructure, it noted in a five page-report. It has also called upon finding ways to vaccinate children on priority basis as they may be the most affected in the third wave.
The SBI report said the average duration of the third wave for developed countries was 98 days as against 108 days in the second wave.
If the country is better prepared for the third wave, “The decline in serious case rate (patients that require oxygen, intensive care unit beds, etc) will lead to fewer deaths,†the SBI Ecowrap report said.
“We find that if serious cases decline from 20 per cent to 5 per cent (due to better health infrastructure and rigorous vaccination) in the third wave, the number of deaths in the third wave could significantly reduce to 40,000, as compared to the current deaths of more than 0.17 million.â€
In the second wave, the serious cases were as high as 20 per cent of all infections. It added this can be done by ramping up health infrastructure and rigorously expanding the vaccination drive.
Currently, just over 12.3 per cent of the people have received at least one dose of the vaccine while 3.27 per cent have been fully vaccinated. The government is targeting up to 1 crore vaccinations per day by mid-July or early August.
In a warning regarding children who could be the next vulnerable group, it said vaccination should be the key priority. “With around 150-170 million children in the 12-18 age bracket, India should go for an advanced procurement strategy like that adopted by developed nations to inoculate this age-group,†the report said.
The report comes as India prepares for a likely third wave of the pandemic. The second wave of the pandemic, which is now on the wane, caused unprecedented devastation with single-day cases reaching as high as 4.14 lakh.
India recorded nearly 90.3 lakh Covid cases in May, by far the highest monthly count reported in any country so far. Although infections steadily declined through the second half of the month, the numbers overall were so high that the case count in May was 30 per cent higher than the previous record of 69.4 lakh, also reported in India in the month of April.
