This unprecedented turn of the shadow war into real war between the two power houses in West Asia puts Indian diplomacy to litmus test.
As expressed by Bhopinder Singh, in his article, the enduring ties between India and Iran, in The Pioneer dated, April 19, 2024, “The template of ‘strategic independence’ (used in the Russian- Ukraine conflict), could be afforded to this conflict which conjoins morality with practicality to take a deliberately mealy- mouthed position that offends none and yet genuinely beseeches peace.”
It is worth reiterating that Indian leadership has spoken to their counterparts in the region such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, Egypt, Jordan and Palestine expressing concern about the possible escalation of conflict at the time of attack by Hamas in Southern Israel on October 7, 2023. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi had also exchanged views over telephone on the matter. On January 25-26, during French President, Emmanuel Macron’s visit to India, PM Modi and President Macron expressed grave concerns over the conflict, including the Red Sea.
India has strategic ties with both Iran and Israel for decades. It has been maintaining the balance between the two. If the conflict gets out of hand, it would be difficult for India to maintain an ambivalent position.
With Iran, India has close trade and economic relations. Iran also plays a key role in India’s energy security. From the point of geopolitics, it is the gateway to Central Asia. There are about 5,000 to 10,000 Indians in Iran. About 90 lakh Indians work in the Gulf and West Asian region. Indian Diaspora of that regions is a main source of remittance. Any conflict in that region would pose great risk to Indian communities. Besides, the West Asian region accounts for 80% oil supplies to India. India has been able to minimize the impact of oil prices due to the Russian- Ukraine War by buying Russian oil at a discounted price, but the conflict will have adverse impact on energy prices.
With Israel, India has growing and ever expanding multi- dimensional ties: trade, technology, defence, security, intelligence sharing and agriculture. Therefore, peace and stability in West Asia is of paramount importance for India. India is also close to the backers of both sides: with US, which is solidly behind Israel, and with Russia which fully backs Iran.
India’s diplomacy is having a tough time ahead. For larger national interests, India should use backdoor channel, and civilisational bonhomie, to de-escalate the situation as both the countries are vital to India which needs to prioritize peace over binary choice.
(Prof Dr Padhi is a researcher, specialising on international diplomacy)
