In April this year, when the US President Donald Trump unveiled ‘reciprocal tariffs’ against trade partners, a White House note stated, “For the first time in decades, the United States will see fair trade… level the playing field for American workers and businesses.” It added, “Despite the rhetoric from politicians and the media, studies have repeatedly shown tariffs are an effective tool for achieving economic and strategic objectives, just as they did in President Trump’s first term.” Critics vehemently disagreed.

A public policy think tank, American Enterprise Institute, published a report that predicted, “The long-term consequences of trade wars (and tariffs imposed in 2020) on US agriculture remain concerning, as shown by how China permanently shifted soybean imports from the US to Brazil following the previous trade war, despite temporary government assistance to affected farmers.” This time too, Beijing has shifted the supplies of soybean, corn, and other farm produce from America to nations like Brazil and India.

During Trump’s first tenure, pro-free market think tank CATO Institute found that the US spent more than $23 billion to bail out the local farmers. During the second tenure, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) allocated $10 billion under the Emergency Commodity Assistance Programme. The non-profit news site, Pennsylvania Capital-Star, met a farmer, who is a member of Pennsylvania’s Soybean Board. The future of American agriculture, the website surmised, “has grown murky, especially when it comes to soybeans, one of Reskovac’s (the interviewed farmer) primary crops.”

China’s boycott of US soybeans led to a reduction in demand, which resulted in a drop in local prices. The price went up around 2020, and crossed $17 a bushel, only to slither down to the low pre-pandemic levels of around $10. Reskovac told the news site that the unpredictable weather, when last season’s droughts cut his yield by 40 per cent, and the soaring costs of machinery and hard-to-find labour slashed both productivity and profits.

American tariffs on imports impacted agriculture. According to a recent report, “As a result of tariff actions, the average effective tariff rate on agricultural inputs has jumped from 1 per cent to 12 per cent as of August 2025. Pesticides, tractors, and machinery face the highest increases. Effective tariff rate on herbicides and pesticides is 20 per cent or higher, while tariffs on phosphate and nitrogen, used in fertilizer production, are currently subject to average effective rates near 10 per cent. Tractors and other agricultural machinery, and parts, saw average effective tariff rates rise from near zero to 16 per cent, and 13 per cent, respectively.”

In 2024, China purchased more than half ($12.64 billion) of America’s soybean exports (total export valued at USD 24.47 billion). In 2022, the corn purchases from America were $5.2 billion, which fell drastically to $331 million in 2024. The USDA income forecast stated that the prices of soybeans, corn, and wheat will remain low in 2025. Total receipts from crops are expected to come down by $6.1 billion, or 2.5 per cent, compared to the previous year, according to a report by AgAmerica. The report added that corn incomes may fall by 3.7 per cent, soybeans by 7.2 per cent, and wheat by 9.8 per cent.

AgAmerica pinpointed fruit and nuts as the exceptions, and forecasted the incomes from these products to increase by 6.5 per cent due to both higher prices and higher quantities. However, an earlier study found that California's tree-nut exporters, primarily of almonds, pistachios, and walnuts, faced export losses due to high tariffs by buyer nations. Other studies indicate large impacts on state-level revenues, and supply-chain disruptions.

The American farmers may witness a quarter of their agricultural exports wiped out, according to an analysis of University of California’s Giannini Foundation. Between 2018 and 2019, it noted, trade wars led to retaliatory tariffs that caused exports and prices of agricultural commodities to plummet. By 2023, “California’s value of yearly agricultural exports to China soared to more than $2.6 billion, up from just $0.2 billion in 2002. This boom in trade has been incredibly beneficial for high-value crops like almonds.”

In 2024, stated USDA, farm exports totaled $176 billion, marking a one per cent (or $1.8 billion) increase from the previous year. The key drivers of this growth, it added, included tree nuts (up $1 billion, or 11 per cent), corn ($807 million, 6 per cent), food preparations ($795 million, 14 per cent), and pork and pork products ($458 million, 6 per cent). AgAmerica, basing its figures on USDA, said that while farm exports will decline, imports will rise to $212 billion, which will widen the farm trade deficit to a staggering $42.5 billion.

In another article, addressing how farm tariffs have impacted the US agricultural trade deficit, the agricultural finance institution added that the USDA expects the figure to reach $47 billion, which is higher than other estimates, but down from its own prediction of $49.5 billion. In 2026, the deficit is expected to fall to $41.5 billion.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, “Low grain prices, with elevated input costs, including interest and family living, are contributing to financial hardship.” There is a growing fear that some nations, which face the American tariff stock, may impose reciprocal duties on American farm imports.

However, there is mixed optimism. The highly-anticipated meeting between the US President and China’s counterpart Xi Jinping in South Korea may bring some manna for the American farmers. This may mark the first meeting between the two leaders in six years, and is expected to take place before the October 31-November 1 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).

Despite the trade issues between India and the US, farm trade between the two nations indicates positive trends. Between January and June this year, which may not include the recent period when tariffs were hiked, India’s imports of American farm produce went up by nearly 50 per cent. India’s exports jumped by nearly 25 per cent during the same period. The trade deficit was in India’s favour.

“The biggest US farm export to India were tree nuts, mainly almonds and pistachios. These were worth more than $1.1 billion in 2024, and have grown by another 42.8 per cent in the first half of 2025. Other major items include ethanol, soybean oil, and cotton. Ethanol worth $420 million was sent to India last year, mostly for making industrial products like medicines and chemicals,” stated a media report.